A charge for emissions? American carriers at Heathrow Airport in London.
In another challenge to the European Union’s plan to regulate emissions from the world’s airlines, 26 countries including China and the United States are backing a resolution urging that non-European airlines be exempted.
A debate on the resolution is anticipated on Wednesday at a meeting of theInternational Civil Aviation Organization, an arm of the United Nations, in Montreal.
A draft of the resolution viewed this week by The International Herald Tribune argues that European plan “poses major challenges and risks for aircraft operators.” It warns that other countries could introduce retaliatory rival measures, “bringing about a chaotic situation adversely affecting the sustainability of air transport.”
Under a law approved by the European Union three years ago, airlines landing at or taking off from any airport within a member nation starting on Jan. 1, 2012, must obtain a sufficient number of pollution permits under the union’s cap and trade system, the world’s largest.
The union says its law is justified because the I.C.A.O., the United Nations body, has taken too long to come up with a global system for reining in the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. But the plan has met with fierce opposition from airlines, many of them based outside of Europe.
The airlines say that the union has no right to charge for emissions on routes that are mostly outside European airspace.
The Europeans won an important preliminary ruling last month, when the advocate general at the European Court of Justice strongly endorsed the European Union’s push.
The court usually follows recommendations of the advocate general. Still, theAir Transport Association of America, which brought the legal challenge in concert with three major airlines, said it was important to wait for the final opinion.
Attention has turned to the United Nations aviation arm. If the resolution goes to a vote and is approved on Wednesday, which appears likely, it could put more pressure on the Europeans to negotiate a system that would be acceptable to the airlines or even change the law.
A vote in favor of the resolution would not be binding.
European Union officials, in preparatory notes that were viewed this week by The International Herald Tribune, have acknowledged that passage of the resolution “would constitute an important political statement.” In the notes, officials said that the “most benign outcome” of the meeting on Wednesday would be to prevent a vote from taking place.
In the worst-case scenario, the dispute could turn into a full-blown trade war between Europe and countries including the United States.
Last month the House of Representatives approved a measure that would make it illegal for American airlines to comply with the European Union law. If the American bill were to become law, airlines would be unable to fly to and from Europe without breaking either a federal law in the United States or a European Union law. For now, that seems highly far-fetched.
Although the system is due to take effect next year, airlines would not have to hand over the first batches of permits until the spring of 2013 to compensate for flights made in 2012. That could leave room for a compromise over the next year.
The European Union could exempt all incoming flights from the rules, although that seems unlikely to allay the concerns of countries like the United States and China because their airlines would still need to pay for the emissions tied to outgoing flights.
The airlines could also seek a compromise with Europe where they would pledge to speed up work on a global airline-emissions system while remaining exempt from paying for their pollution outside of European Union airspace.
Many airlines probably will face little pain to begin with, and some may even profit.
Airlines will receive about 85 percent of their permits at no charge. Most should be able to pass along the costs by charging passengers a few dollars more for their tickets. Estimates of the cost to the industry for the first year of the system range from $825 million to $1.5 billion.
The more serious concern for airlines is that they are looking at the thin end of an enormous wedge. The sums could grow substantially in coming years if governments decide to auction a larger proportion of permits and if demand for the permits rises.
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